01
Section 1
GCC Tourism Outlook
Move from the scale of the 2026 shock, through the sources of resilience, to possible recovery paths and the policy choices that follow.
02
Section 2
Resilience
03
Section 3
Recovery Paths
04
Section 4
Strategic Outlook and Policies
05
Section 5
Gulf arrivals fell further than the wider region's, and the impact varied across the destinations
CountrySaudi ArabiaUAEQatarKuwaitBahrainOmanEmirate figure
The Middle East entered 2026 after a record 100 million international tourist arrivals in 2025, 40% above 2019.[1] Conflict, airspace closures and weaker traveller confidence then cut arrivals by 22% in the first half and by 33% in the second quarter.[1] The losses fell hardest on the GCC, where closed air corridors contributed to a 28.8% decline, while Egypt, whose airspace was not covered by Europe's conflict-zone advisory,[24] grew 3%.[1]
Exposure to the shock varies by state, because inbound tourism spending carries very different weight in each economy. Before the conflict, it reached about 11% of GDP in Qatar, 9% in Bahrain and 8% in the UAE, against less than 4% in Saudi Arabia and Oman.[22] Employment exposure follows a different order, with accommodation and food services accounting for 3.3–6.8% of jobs across the Gulf’s high-income economies, highest in Oman and Saudi Arabia.[22]
Synthesis
Key Patterns across the GCC
International and Regional Demand Declined Sharply, While Domestic Tourism Provided Partial Mitigation
Sustained Visitor Volumes Did Not Translate into Revenue Stability, Highlighting the Volume-Value Discrepancy
Disrupted air access, more than physical damage, appears to have carried the shock to tourism
−58.6%
Year-on-year fall in Middle East air passenger traffic at the start of the war[35]
−10%
Year-on-year fall in Middle East air passenger traffic in July 2026[35]
100k → 40k
Daily transfer passengers at Dubai International (pre-war vs June 2026)[36]
Airlines Are Returning to the UAE in Stages
Scheduled restart dates for suspended Dubai and Abu Dhabi routes, as of 8 October 2026[37]
Flight Arrivals Recovered Unevenly
Weekly flight arrivals indexed to 15–21 February 2026, the last pre-war week (= 100). By 23–29 August, three of eight GCC airports had matched or exceeded their pre-war level.[22]
View chart
Synthesis
Major Frictions across Gulf Aviation
Insurance
War-Risk Insurance Costs Rose Sharply[36][38] as Standard Policies Excluded Conflict Cover, Pushing Emirates Towards New Repatriation Arrangements[36]
Rerouting
Airspace Advisories Forced Widespread Rerouting, Adding Up to Two Hours to Some Journeys[39] and Cutting Dubai’s Daily Transfer Passengers by About 60%[36]
Private charters
Charter Prices for Private Jets Doubled as Stranded Travellers Sought Exits From the Gulf, Potentially Challenging Dubai’s Standing as a Regional Safe Haven[40]
Fuel
Jet Fuel Prices Rose Sharply, Keeping Long-Haul Fares Elevated and Likely Slowing the Return of Price-Sensitive Leisure Travellers[41]
Drivers of Tourism Resilience: Domestic Depth, Fixed-Purpose Segments, and Events
Hover or tap a buffer to explore it
1
Where it showedSaudi ArabiaRas Al KhaimahOman
2
Buffer 2 · Fixed-purpose segments
Abu Dhabi’s Focus on Domestic, Government, and Religious Travel Preserved Hotel Value and Limited Revenue Losses During the Downturn
Where it showedAbu Dhabi
3
Buffer 3 · Events and regional traffic
Robust Event Calendars and Intra-GCC Arrivals in Qatar and Saudi Arabia Accelerated Visitor Recovery
Where it showedQatarSaudi Arabia
Relying solely on visitor numbers can mask economic losses, as destinations may gain arrivals yet see declines in revenue or room rates. Our analysis suggests defining resilience across five metrics:
01
Volume
retention
Visitors against the prior period
Visitor volumes held up where domestic travel could stand in for lost inbound demand, as in Saudi Arabia,[33] which suggests that a tourism base spread across domestic and international source markets may protect arrival numbers when inbound flows are disrupted.
02
Utilisation
Occupancy and room nights
Occupancy fell everywhere, though less steeply in mid-market hotels in Dubai.[30] A hotel stock spread across classes may therefore cushion occupancy, and investment and policy support that extends beyond the luxury tier may help preserve capacity through a downturn.
03
Price
integrity
Average daily rate
Operators appear to have protected rates rather than discount to fill rooms, which may support a faster revenue recovery once demand returns.[30] Dubai’s two support packages in March and May, worth AED 2.5 billion and including relief on hotel and tourism fees,[42] may have eased the cost pressure that would otherwise push operators towards discounting.
04 · Critical
Value
retention
Revenue per available room, spend per visitor and repeat visits
Value reaches beyond the room rate to what each guest spends in the hotel, how long they stay, what they do outside it and whether they come back. Destinations that lengthen stays, widen spending on dining and activities, and turn transit passengers and one-night stopovers into return visitors are likely to retain more value from each arrival over its lifetime.
05
Recovery
speed
Months to revive and exceed previous levels
Tourism recovers in stages: bookings were back within months while spending per trip may take two to three years to follow
1 · Perception
Perceived safety fell within days
Index points out of 100, 28 Feb–4 Mar 2026[44]
Bahrain
91 → 10
Oman
82 → 25
Qatar
73 → 18
UAE
100 → 52
Saudi Arabia
99 → 85
BeforeLow point
What Past Conflicts Suggest for Gulf Recovery
Conflict-related tourism shocks have historically been deeper and longer-lasting than other tourism downturns.[22]
After past conflicts, spending stayed near 75% of prior levels for 2–3 years; arrivals fell about 25% and took about three years to recover.[22]
Visitor numbers can recover before spending does, as lower-spending markets fill the gap left by higher-spending ones.[46]
GCC recovery depends on three conditions the conflict disrupted at different speeds
Whether recovery is rapid, gradual or prolonged is likely to turn on how quickly security perception, air access and booking value realign.
Perceived securityHow safe travellers perceive the region to be
Air accessHow quickly airlines and advisories restore access
Value per bookingHow much each booking is worth
GCC can Strategically Prepare for Multiple Tourism Recovery Scenarios
Illustrative paths, not a forecast
Conditions
- Perceived securityHighRecovers within weeks
- Air accessHighRestored across most routes
- Value per bookingHighRebounds within a year
Priority actions
- Implement immediate, coordinated confidence-building initiatives in priority source markets, leveraging partnerships with airlines, hotels, and tour operators.
- Introduce flexible booking policies and targeted short-term incentives to quickly stimulate demand.
Conditions
- Perceived securityMidRecovers market by market
- Air accessMidReturns in stages as advisories ease
- Value per bookingLowLags volume for up to 2–3 years[22]
Priority actions
- Adopt a phased approach to restoring demand, starting with markets where travel advisories have eased and air connectivity has been re-established.
- Incrementally scale up marketing, airline collaborations, and promotions in line with the recovery of traveller confidence and capacity.
Conditions
- Perceived securityLowStays low or volatile
- Air accessLowSuspensions and advisories persist
- Value per bookingLowStays depressed
Priority actions
- Prioritise retention by safeguarding current bookings and maintaining strong relationships with travel trade partners.
- Emphasise transparent communication about safety protocols, shift focus to resilient regional and domestic segments, and minimise new international marketing investments.
Whichever path recovery takes, it is likely to restore arrivals faster than value; the decade ahead will reward destinations that give visitors reasons to choose them, remember them and return.
Redefine tourism success by prioritizing visitor experience quality and lasting engagement over infrastructure growth metrics
Drive destination competitiveness through unique cultural, natural, and lifestyle differentiation rather than regional imitation
Maximize visitor lifetime value by fostering repeat visits, extended stays, higher spending, and loyalty through personalization and data-driven insights
Strategic Priorities for GCC Tourism Resilience
Invest in Continuity and Resilience Enablers to Protect Access
Build route redundancy and test rapid capacity restoration after disruptions.
Integrate tourism into security and airspace planning, publish resilience metrics, and offer targeted support to vulnerable businesses.
Operate as a unified regional network with integrated visas, payments, and crisis response to increase cross-border travel and manage risk perception.
From Transit Hub to Destination Hub: Seven Shifts to 2035
Achieving the Gulf’s shift from a transit hub to a true destination by 2035 will require major changes to demand strategies, infrastructure, and risk management. Seven strategic shifts are shaping this future trajectory:
Connection is the product.
Repeat visits become the product.
01
Shift 01
AI-Driven Travel Decisions Will Require Destinations to Deliver Real-Time Safety and Operations Data
Static destination information→Real-time safety & operations data
02
Shift 02
Asian and Domestic Travelers Will Become the Primary Growth Drivers as Europe Shifts to a Premium Segment
Europe-led demand mix→Asian + domestic growth
03
Shift 03
Year-Round, Segmented Domestic Tourism Is Essential to Buffer Against Future Shocks
Seasonal domestic demand→Year-round shock buffer
04
Shift 04
Robust Event Programming and Flexible Calendars Are Key to Anchoring Tourism Recovery and Building Resilience
Fixed event calendars→Flexible recovery anchors
05
Shift 05
Tourism’s Risk Profile Elevates It to a Strategic Cross-Ministry Priority for National Policy
Tourism-sector issue→Cross-ministry priority
06
Shift 06
Transparent, Published Performance Indicators Are Necessary to Prove, Not Just Promise, Operational Stability
Promise stability→Publish proof of stability
07
Shift 07
A Unified Gulf Visa, Payment, and Transit Network Can Enable Seamless Multi-Country Travel but Requires Joint Risk Management
Separate national systems→One connected Gulf journey
2035 destination horizonScale only matters if it converts into reasons to stay, return and recommend.
Tourism contribution$365.7bnto GCC GDP[47]
Employment5.8mjobs supported[47]
GCC-Stat’s outlook hinges on broadening demand beyond long-haul luxury to include domestic, event, and Asian segments; reducing reliance on single access channels; and demonstrating resilience to make the Gulf a repeat destination rather than just a transit point.
About NBR: Nation Brand Research studies how countries are perceived and how those perceptions shape tourism, investment and talent flows. This brief extends NBR Tourism Next: 2026 and Beyond.